Some quick thoughts after being gone...

I have been on the road a bit and a touch busy so I haven't posted. Sorry. A few quick thoughts...

Politics:

South Carolina: Obama kicked Hill's ass in South Carolina. Wow...I wonder if that can translate into some real movement going into Super Tuesday. As of a few days ago, Hill had a nice lead in California, the biggest prize on Feb. 5. But can she hold on?

Florida: It looks like today's primary in Florida is going to be a horse race between Mitt and McCain. So, come on guys, sing along with me. You all know the tune:

"Start spreading the news, He's losing today, He won't be a part of it, Rudy Rudy..."

State of the Union: I'm still reading the transcript because I just couldn't listen to the man talk. He has become a characterization for himself. The cadence, the slurred pronunciations, I just can't believe that he is sitting in the office for which I have so much respect. Is it November yet?

Headlines

Middle Age Depression: Using data from 2 million people in 80 countries, researchers have determined that people in their 40's are more likely to be depressed than any other age group. Tell me something I don't know.
Middle-Aged Misery Spans Globe, Study Says

French Trader Loses 7.09 Billion Dollars (and what that could buy): According to French authorities, a young trader named Jerome Kerviel lost that huge sum gambling in the markets. He says the bank he worked for had to know, the bank is calling him a "rogue trader". Either way, according to the Associated Press, these are a few of the things you can buy for just over seven billion dollars

— 110 F-35 Joint Strike Fighter jets
— 8 Queen Mary 2 luxury cruise liners
— 1 week’s worth of U.S. oil imports
— 2 Freedom Towers at Ground Zero
— 17 million Apple iPhones
— Nearly double Bolivia’s foreign debt
— But only 4.75 percent of President Bush’s economic stimulus plan

By the way, that means the stimulus package is worth between 140 and 150 billion dollars. The current cost of the war is estimated at around 490 billion dollars. Personally, based on those figures, I think the federal spending priorities need some significant adjusting.

Hold on to your shorts...

I missed the debate, the kids really wanted to watch American Gladiators and I figured they were roughly equal in format so I chose gladiators.

The futures for the Dow show the biggest drop since 9/11. Hold on kids, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Britney Spears on Wild Kingdom

Question: How do you know that you should modify your life?

Answer: When you’re only 26 years old and the Associated Press is working on your obituary.

For the 12 of you who didn’t know this, large news organizations write the obits of famous people in advance. But they don’t usually start that file for 26 year-olds. You have to be on a pretty obvious downward spiral to hit the radar of the obit writers before the age of 30. You see most reporters don't feel motivated to work if they aren't on a deadline.

Sophia Loren, Mickey Rooney, Nancy Reagan, the AP has their obits all typed up and ready to go. But that isn't exactly the kind of company you should be keeping when you're a 26 year-old pop singer.

Brit, get some serious help girlfriend. Quit flashing your pussy in public, quit drinking, quit driving, stay in your fucking house and get help. Until you do, K-Fed will have the kids, the vultures will continue to circle and the leeches that are your “friends” and the entertainment/celebrity media will bleed you dry.

Like they used to show us on Mutual of Omaha’s Wild Kingdom, the weakest of the herd get eaten, and right now you’re staggering around like a drunk, three-legged zebra with a death wish. Brit baby, the lions have invited you to dinner and it’s not as a guest.

In related news, Dr. Phil might be under investigation by the California Board of Psychology for his attention grabbing visit to the hospital after Britney Spears’ latest melt down. Apparently they frown on illegally practicing without a license violating doctor patient priviledge which is what the filed complaint alleges. It is only a complaint at this point, but the news story does give us this little factoid:

“McGraw [Dr. Phil] is also not licensed to practice psychology in Texas, his home state, because of disciplinary sanctions imposed by the Texas State Board of Examiners of Psychologists in 1989. A former therapy client had filed a complaint against him, claiming their relationship was inappropriate. He later admitted giving her a job but denied touching her, the Post reported.”

So, Dr. Phil lost his right to practice in his home state because the Texas State Board of Examiners of Psychologists believed that he had an “inappropriate relationship” with a patient. Now he is under investigation for alleged violations in California. I just have one question:

Hey Dr. Phil! How’s that workin’ for ya?

Even better, I wonder how Oprah is feeling right about now. First the girls school in Africa gets hit with abuse charges and now the shrink she turned into a star is acting like some poor, attention starved child who will do anything to stay relevant.

Bottom Line: Brit needs help before she ends up hurting herself even worse. Love her or hate her, she needs help.

Bring Out Your Dead

Mitt and Hillary win in Michigan. The polls show that 40% of those who voted for Mitt said that his historic ties to the state were either "important" or "very important." Mitt's dad was the governor of Michigan from 1963 to 1969. Nothing like voting the issues.

Hillary was the only one of the big three Democrats on the ballot. The other two had pulled their names after Michigan got in the show down with the national party over moving the date of their primary to before Feb. 5.

The only person who proved anything in Michigan was McCain who got 30% of the vote. Like the old man from the Monty Python movie Holy Grail, McCain just shouted to America, "I'm not dead yet." In fact, he was actually declared the winner for five minutes when the Michigan State Republican Party sent out the wrong press release.

In Nevada, since December, Obama has gained 14 points and Hillary has fallen 10 points so that she now has only a three point lead.

I predict a narrow Obama win. That leaves South Carolina as the jumping off point for Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. The latest polling data I've seen puts Obama at anywhere from 42 to 50 percent with Hillary running right about 30 percent. If Obama can scratch out a win in Nevada followed by a big win in South Carolina, he could very well grab the momentum and make Feb. 5 live or die time for the rest of the field.

Knowing the track helps you understand the race...

Hillary finishes significantly behind Obama in Iowa. Then she sneaks ahead and steals New Hampshire by 3 percent. So what's next? Like most people, I don't keep the primary schedule tattooed on my arm so I have to use another tool. I think this one is rather nice.

New York Times Primary Election Guide

With this guide you see not only when each primary/caucus is being held, but you also see the number of delegates that are at stake that day. I say "that day" because as you will see, Super Tuesday is right around the corner.

On February 5, 22 states will be holding their primaries and that means roughly half of the delegates needed to get the Democratic nomination are up for grabs.

Before we get to that day, the Democratic candidates still in the race have to go through Nevada and South Carolina. (Technically, Michigan and Florida are in there as well, but they tried to move their primaries ahead of Feb. 5 against the National Democratic Party's wishes and were stripped of their delegates. But that is a whole other story for another day.) Since we have what appears to be a robust and competitive race, those races in Nevada and South Carolina are going to take on real importance moving into Super Tuesday.

Why? Electability.

The Democratic voter, perhaps more than ever before, is focused on electability. If you are looking at the issues of the war, health care, schooling, the economy, regardless of past voting, all of the D's are pretty close to each other. I know that the various candidate's camps would argue the differences, but in the global scheme of things, they are more similar than not and they are all very different than the current administration and the Republican party.

When you combine that with the nearly unprecedented loathing the voters have for the current administration, I believe that Democratic primary voters are walking into the booth with one over-riding thought in mind:

Which of these candidates is most likely to defeat a Republican opponent?

That is why Obama, in his Iowa acceptance speech, spent the first few minutes telling everyone that his campaign had done what "they" said couldn't be done. A black man won in Iowa. By doing that, he was telling the country not to fear voting for a black man because if a black man can win in Iowa, he can win just about anywhere.

That is why Hillary makes experience such a cornerstone of her campaign because she wants the Democratic voters to fear Obama's inexperience. She wants them to think the rest of the country won't vote for someone without a longer, more impressive track record.

So, as you look forward to South Carolina and Nevada, listen to their messages and see if anyone can grab Ol' Man Momentum by the twig and berries and have an edge going into Super Tuesday. If you run the table that day, if you can put your opponent down for the count that day, you can ride into Denver for a coronation instead of a convention.

Good Morning New Hampshire

They are voting as I write. They started voting at midnight and so far, Obama and McCain are winning. But the big story seems to be Hillary Clinton starting to tear-up before the cameras. There seems to be two schools of thought on this one.
First, that she just got a little emotional and if you are feeling generous, feels very passionate about what she is attempting to do. Or more if you are feeling less generous, the pressures of a primary campaign where she is fighting tooth and nail have taken their toll and she's a bit frazzled.

Second, that is was all a ploy to make her more likable, particularly to women voters.

Personally, as a past Clintonista, I think the second option sounds too desperate for Hillary this early in the race. She is much more likely to come out swinging than she is to try a bank shot like that. Not her style, in my humble opinion.

So, is New Hampshire ready to vote for a Presidential candidate who chokes-up with emotion in public? Your guess is as good as mine, but frankly, I don't think it's going to help her one bit.

Whatever the case may be, in the immortal words of Mr. Paul Tully, former DNC political director, "Why am I so happy? Because the people are voting Mr. P_____, they are finally voting."

R.I.P. Paul, we miss you.

A Google News search for those who want to read all about Ms. Clinton's teary-eyed moment.

Obama Climbs Over The Hill!

Wow...not only did Obama win Iowa, He found a way to drive Hillary into third place. If his fundraisers aren't on the phones screaming right now, he's making a huge mistake. Now the question becomes, can he win New Hampshire?

New Hampshire takes on new meaning for Hillary. She must perform well or people are going to start looking at Edwards as a real possibility which means her strategy of wrapping this thing up early goes out the window.

Watch for this thing to go more negative real fast. Hillary cannot allow this freshman Senator to get too much momentum. She maybe a street fighter, but I suspect the party and the voters don't want a street fight, they want to believe in someone.

More later.

A quick shout out to my buddy Phil who walked into his local caucus last night. I wish I could have been there. Were you viable dude?