Monday, November 06, 2006
Predictions Sure To Go Wrong
There is nothing more fickle than a voter. I'm not talking about your hard-core voter, I'm talking about your average voter, and they can do just about anything. I give you my wife as an example. She's a...how to put this....well....a Republican.
There I said it. I'm sure that's some step in some 12 step program. I hope I get credit.
She is voting almost completely Democratic this cycle. She's put off by the war and she looks at her aging, sick father and wonders why anyone would put restrictions on stem cell research. That's about all it took. Not the economy, not gas prices, not illegal immigration ... a war she doesn't think is working and a ban on stem cell research and she's chucking years of loyalty out the window.
God, how I love her.
It seems she's not the only one having a crisis of faith in the Republicans, races across the country are showing a sea change in the power structure of Washington. Democrats are poised to win races in districts and states that just a few short years ago would never have even been in play. It is going to be a wild election night and here are a few predictions from a guy who knows just a bit more than the average bear...but not much more than the crazy guy on the corner who keeps talking to his imaginary dog.
The Democrats take the Senate, but just by one seat. Harold Ford is going to lose in Tennessee but so is Conrad Burns in Montana. If you believe as I do that McCaskill and Webb are going to win in Missouri and Virginia, then the Dems get the Senate, barely.
With such a slim majority in the Senate, not a lot of bills are going to make it to the President. But, the Democrats will have the power of the subpoena to finally try and get to the truth about the war. Progress? Not much. Entertaining? Absolutely.
If Heather Wilson in New Mexico is in trouble and Duckworth is likely to win Henry Hyde's old seat in Illinois then the Republicans are screwed. These are seats that the Republicans should own, and they don't. Therefore I say the Democrats pick up 26 seats and own the House.
We won't know who owns the Senate when the sun comes up on Wednesday. The voting machines that have already shown themselves to be less than reliable in Florida and elsewhere will result in challenges and fights that will prevent extra tight races like the one in Missouri from being decided without a lot of fighting and legal threats.
So go out and buy some No Doze and prepare to be in limbo on Wednesday morning. Personally, I'm going to set a 1 am deadline for myself. Life most go on.
Photo from USAToday.