Friday, November 02, 2012

Election Prediction and Foot Wear

I have stared into my crystal ball and am now ready to make my predictions for next Tuesday’s presidential election. In a race that is tight from a popular vote standpoint, but not as tight from an Electoral College accounting, I predict President Obama will win re-election.

I predict that the swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Virginia will give the President more than the 270 electoral votes needed.

What brought me to this conclusion? I believe that the Romney campaign made a couple of critical errors late in the race that have cooled whatever momentum his campaign may have had. I think they burst through the hole that the President left open after his sub-par performance in the first debate only to stumble over their own two right feet.

First, the disastrous ad where the Romney campaign implies that production of the very American vehicle the Jeep would be moved to China. Romney himself went even farther telling a crowd of supporters in Ohio, “I saw a story today that one of the great manufacturers in this state Jeep — now owned by the Italians — is thinking of moving all production to China.”

Chrysler and Fiat (the majority stakeholder in Chrysler) both refute this bogus claim.

The Obama camp has jumped all over this gaffe, not just because it is untrue, but also because it re-enforces one of their primary messages about Romney: You can’t trust this guy. Romney Jeep Ad

The second mistake came not in the final days, but early in the primary season when during a debate Gov. Romney suggested that disaster relief was something better left to the states or the private sector and not the Federal government.

Then the New Jersey shore and a good bit of New York City were power-washed by hurricane Sandy and nearly 100 American’s died. Before Sandy hit, the President went to the White House to oversee the coordinated disaster response. Afterwards, he was on the ground with Republican poster child Governor Chris Christie, receiving the praise of the New Jersey governor for the swift federal response.

Where was Gov. Romney? He was in swing states collecting paper towels and diapers at campaign stops where the Governor’s meal for the day was a big helping of crow.

He later swallowed hard and his campaign released a statement that in part read, “I believe that FEMA plays a key role in working with states and localities to prepare for and respond to natural disasters. As president, I will ensure FEMA has the funding it needs to fulfill its mission, while directing maximum resources to the first responders who work tirelessly to help those in need, because states and localities are in the best position to get aid to the individuals and communities affected by natural disasters.”

NY Times: Romney on FEMA

Both of these events were just the latest of a series of on-the-fly flip flops and direction changes taken by the Republican candidate. From first fighting for and then denouncing health care reform, from supporting and signing into law an assault weapons ban in Massachusetts to later denouncing any form of gun control, from supporting a woman’s right to choose to proclaiming himself anti-abortion, Governor Romney has flip-flopped his way to the losing end of this election.

American’s like to know what they are buying. They want an honest deal at an honest price. However, a vote for Romney is a transaction strictly governed by the adage “Buyer Beware” and the persuadable, Independent voters are seeing that loud and clear in these final few weeks.

In their eyes, Romney has become the stereotype of a bad used car salesman who will tell you whatever you want to hear in order to make the deal.

“Yep, it’s fast!"

"Sure, it’s safe!"

"Of course it will save you money. Would I lie to you?”

To be honest Governor Romney, I don’t think you are lying per se, I just think you will tell people pretty much whatever they want to hear. A lie implies you have a nefarious master plan, I think that might be giving you too much credit. I suspect you are just the latest dupe put up by the financial elite.  I think their sole purpose is to get you elected so you can protect the rich and the powerful and their money-grabbing, tax-evading, union-busting ways. I guess when this thing is finally over, if my prediction is correct, Romney and the Republicans might finally learn the lesson that so many children have learned the hard way:

You really shouldn’t run in flip flops.


Deb Karamanol said...

Christie is a hero in our state of New Jersey and his comments about Obama didn't just ring true with New Jersey voters but in other states as well I suspect.

Deb Karamanol said...

Christie is a hero in our state of New Jersey and his comments about Obama didn't just ring true with New Jersey voters but in other states as well I suspect.