Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Bring Out Your Dead

Mitt and Hillary win in Michigan. The polls show that 40% of those who voted for Mitt said that his historic ties to the state were either "important" or "very important." Mitt's dad was the governor of Michigan from 1963 to 1969. Nothing like voting the issues.

Hillary was the only one of the big three Democrats on the ballot. The other two had pulled their names after Michigan got in the show down with the national party over moving the date of their primary to before Feb. 5.

The only person who proved anything in Michigan was McCain who got 30% of the vote. Like the old man from the Monty Python movie Holy Grail, McCain just shouted to America, "I'm not dead yet." In fact, he was actually declared the winner for five minutes when the Michigan State Republican Party sent out the wrong press release.

In Nevada, since December, Obama has gained 14 points and Hillary has fallen 10 points so that she now has only a three point lead.

I predict a narrow Obama win. That leaves South Carolina as the jumping off point for Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. The latest polling data I've seen puts Obama at anywhere from 42 to 50 percent with Hillary running right about 30 percent. If Obama can scratch out a win in Nevada followed by a big win in South Carolina, he could very well grab the momentum and make Feb. 5 live or die time for the rest of the field.


Phil said...

I really hope that at least one party goes to the convention without a nominee. Both might be too much to hope for. But, people would learn that there is such a thing as a super delegate. They might even learn what a super delegate is! It would be a fine civics lesson for the whole country. Plus, a shorter general election would be good for our collective mental health.

Jim said...

But I'm not dead yet... (THUMP) Yes, you are.

So am I an idiot to hold out hope for John Edwards? Has it already been decided by all the media that only mention Clinton or Obama?

The T-Dude said...

Phil - I know I would like to see it but I'm not sure how the party would like it.

Jim - Hope springs eternal and who am I to piddle on your dreams...but yeah, he's pretty much toast...unless....

He has to make a move really soon. If he does well on Super Tuesday, he could be a comeback kid. But with his poor polling in his homestate of South Carolina I don't see how he is going to get any traction and start moving up.

Sheila said...

I can't help feeling rather hopeless that Edwards is going anywhere. I don't know why his message hasn't caught on but he has remained true to it as far as I can tell. Now, I'm faced with sticking with him for Missouri's Feb 5 primary or going with Obama. I won't vote for Clinton. I do hate the way the media has made this a two-way race.

Anonymous said...

So the voters are ignoring the issues when they choose Mitt because they associate him with his dad, but people voting for Hillary do it strictly because of the issues. Yeah, I guess being married to the former President is a pretty important issue.