Hold on to your shorts...

I missed the debate, the kids really wanted to watch American Gladiators and I figured they were roughly equal in format so I chose gladiators.

The futures for the Dow show the biggest drop since 9/11. Hold on kids, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Britney Spears on Wild Kingdom

Question: How do you know that you should modify your life?

Answer: When you’re only 26 years old and the Associated Press is working on your obituary.

For the 12 of you who didn’t know this, large news organizations write the obits of famous people in advance. But they don’t usually start that file for 26 year-olds. You have to be on a pretty obvious downward spiral to hit the radar of the obit writers before the age of 30. You see most reporters don't feel motivated to work if they aren't on a deadline.

Sophia Loren, Mickey Rooney, Nancy Reagan, the AP has their obits all typed up and ready to go. But that isn't exactly the kind of company you should be keeping when you're a 26 year-old pop singer.

Brit, get some serious help girlfriend. Quit flashing your pussy in public, quit drinking, quit driving, stay in your fucking house and get help. Until you do, K-Fed will have the kids, the vultures will continue to circle and the leeches that are your “friends” and the entertainment/celebrity media will bleed you dry.

Like they used to show us on Mutual of Omaha’s Wild Kingdom, the weakest of the herd get eaten, and right now you’re staggering around like a drunk, three-legged zebra with a death wish. Brit baby, the lions have invited you to dinner and it’s not as a guest.

In related news, Dr. Phil might be under investigation by the California Board of Psychology for his attention grabbing visit to the hospital after Britney Spears’ latest melt down. Apparently they frown on illegally practicing without a license violating doctor patient priviledge which is what the filed complaint alleges. It is only a complaint at this point, but the news story does give us this little factoid:

“McGraw [Dr. Phil] is also not licensed to practice psychology in Texas, his home state, because of disciplinary sanctions imposed by the Texas State Board of Examiners of Psychologists in 1989. A former therapy client had filed a complaint against him, claiming their relationship was inappropriate. He later admitted giving her a job but denied touching her, the Post reported.”

So, Dr. Phil lost his right to practice in his home state because the Texas State Board of Examiners of Psychologists believed that he had an “inappropriate relationship” with a patient. Now he is under investigation for alleged violations in California. I just have one question:

Hey Dr. Phil! How’s that workin’ for ya?

Even better, I wonder how Oprah is feeling right about now. First the girls school in Africa gets hit with abuse charges and now the shrink she turned into a star is acting like some poor, attention starved child who will do anything to stay relevant.

Bottom Line: Brit needs help before she ends up hurting herself even worse. Love her or hate her, she needs help.

Bring Out Your Dead

Mitt and Hillary win in Michigan. The polls show that 40% of those who voted for Mitt said that his historic ties to the state were either "important" or "very important." Mitt's dad was the governor of Michigan from 1963 to 1969. Nothing like voting the issues.

Hillary was the only one of the big three Democrats on the ballot. The other two had pulled their names after Michigan got in the show down with the national party over moving the date of their primary to before Feb. 5.

The only person who proved anything in Michigan was McCain who got 30% of the vote. Like the old man from the Monty Python movie Holy Grail, McCain just shouted to America, "I'm not dead yet." In fact, he was actually declared the winner for five minutes when the Michigan State Republican Party sent out the wrong press release.

In Nevada, since December, Obama has gained 14 points and Hillary has fallen 10 points so that she now has only a three point lead.

I predict a narrow Obama win. That leaves South Carolina as the jumping off point for Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. The latest polling data I've seen puts Obama at anywhere from 42 to 50 percent with Hillary running right about 30 percent. If Obama can scratch out a win in Nevada followed by a big win in South Carolina, he could very well grab the momentum and make Feb. 5 live or die time for the rest of the field.

Knowing the track helps you understand the race...

Hillary finishes significantly behind Obama in Iowa. Then she sneaks ahead and steals New Hampshire by 3 percent. So what's next? Like most people, I don't keep the primary schedule tattooed on my arm so I have to use another tool. I think this one is rather nice.

New York Times Primary Election Guide

With this guide you see not only when each primary/caucus is being held, but you also see the number of delegates that are at stake that day. I say "that day" because as you will see, Super Tuesday is right around the corner.

On February 5, 22 states will be holding their primaries and that means roughly half of the delegates needed to get the Democratic nomination are up for grabs.

Before we get to that day, the Democratic candidates still in the race have to go through Nevada and South Carolina. (Technically, Michigan and Florida are in there as well, but they tried to move their primaries ahead of Feb. 5 against the National Democratic Party's wishes and were stripped of their delegates. But that is a whole other story for another day.) Since we have what appears to be a robust and competitive race, those races in Nevada and South Carolina are going to take on real importance moving into Super Tuesday.

Why? Electability.

The Democratic voter, perhaps more than ever before, is focused on electability. If you are looking at the issues of the war, health care, schooling, the economy, regardless of past voting, all of the D's are pretty close to each other. I know that the various candidate's camps would argue the differences, but in the global scheme of things, they are more similar than not and they are all very different than the current administration and the Republican party.

When you combine that with the nearly unprecedented loathing the voters have for the current administration, I believe that Democratic primary voters are walking into the booth with one over-riding thought in mind:

Which of these candidates is most likely to defeat a Republican opponent?

That is why Obama, in his Iowa acceptance speech, spent the first few minutes telling everyone that his campaign had done what "they" said couldn't be done. A black man won in Iowa. By doing that, he was telling the country not to fear voting for a black man because if a black man can win in Iowa, he can win just about anywhere.

That is why Hillary makes experience such a cornerstone of her campaign because she wants the Democratic voters to fear Obama's inexperience. She wants them to think the rest of the country won't vote for someone without a longer, more impressive track record.

So, as you look forward to South Carolina and Nevada, listen to their messages and see if anyone can grab Ol' Man Momentum by the twig and berries and have an edge going into Super Tuesday. If you run the table that day, if you can put your opponent down for the count that day, you can ride into Denver for a coronation instead of a convention.

Good Morning New Hampshire

They are voting as I write. They started voting at midnight and so far, Obama and McCain are winning. But the big story seems to be Hillary Clinton starting to tear-up before the cameras. There seems to be two schools of thought on this one.
First, that she just got a little emotional and if you are feeling generous, feels very passionate about what she is attempting to do. Or more if you are feeling less generous, the pressures of a primary campaign where she is fighting tooth and nail have taken their toll and she's a bit frazzled.

Second, that is was all a ploy to make her more likable, particularly to women voters.

Personally, as a past Clintonista, I think the second option sounds too desperate for Hillary this early in the race. She is much more likely to come out swinging than she is to try a bank shot like that. Not her style, in my humble opinion.

So, is New Hampshire ready to vote for a Presidential candidate who chokes-up with emotion in public? Your guess is as good as mine, but frankly, I don't think it's going to help her one bit.

Whatever the case may be, in the immortal words of Mr. Paul Tully, former DNC political director, "Why am I so happy? Because the people are voting Mr. P_____, they are finally voting."

R.I.P. Paul, we miss you.

A Google News search for those who want to read all about Ms. Clinton's teary-eyed moment.

Obama Climbs Over The Hill!

Wow...not only did Obama win Iowa, He found a way to drive Hillary into third place. If his fundraisers aren't on the phones screaming right now, he's making a huge mistake. Now the question becomes, can he win New Hampshire?

New Hampshire takes on new meaning for Hillary. She must perform well or people are going to start looking at Edwards as a real possibility which means her strategy of wrapping this thing up early goes out the window.

Watch for this thing to go more negative real fast. Hillary cannot allow this freshman Senator to get too much momentum. She maybe a street fighter, but I suspect the party and the voters don't want a street fight, they want to believe in someone.

More later.

A quick shout out to my buddy Phil who walked into his local caucus last night. I wish I could have been there. Were you viable dude?

Why Caucuses Rock!

There are those in the media who don't like caucuses. They refer to them as "quaint" when they feel generous and "arcane" when they don't. But having grown up in Iowa, and can tell you first hand that the caucus system is awesome. For those of you who don't know how the caucuses work, here is the Readers Digest version from Wikipedia. Please note, this is only the Democratic Party version, the Republicans do it differently:

The caucus is generally defined as a "gathering of neighbors." Rather than going to polls and casting ballots, Iowans gather at a set location in each of Iowa's 1784 precincts. Typically, these meetings occur in schools, churches, or public libraries. The caucuses are held every two years, but the ones that receive national attention are the presidential preference caucuses held every four years. In addition to the voting, caucus attendees propose planks for their party's platform, select members of the county committees, and discuss issues important to their local organizations.

Participants indicate their support for a particular candidate by standing in a designated area of the caucus site (forming a "preference group"). An area may also be designated for undecided participants. Then, for roughly 30 minutes, participants try to convince their neighbors to support their candidates. Each preference group might informally deputize a few members to recruit supporters from the other groups and, in particular, from among those undecided. Undecided participants might visit each preference group to ask its members about their candidate.

After 30 minutes, the electioneering is temporarily halted and the supporters for each candidate are counted. At this point, the caucus officials determine which candidates are "viable". Depending on the number of county delegates to be elected, the "viability threshold" can be anywhere from 15% to 25% of attendees. For a candidate to receive any delegates from a particular precinct, he or she must have the support of at least the percentage of participants required by the viability threshold. Once viability is determined, participants have roughly another 30 minutes to "realign": the supporters of inviable candidates may find a viable candidate to support, join together with supporters of another inviable candidate to secure a delegate for one of the two, or choose to abstain. This "realignment" is a crucial distinction of caucuses in that (unlike a primary) being a voter's "second candidate of choice" can help a candidate.

When the voting is closed, a final head count is conducted, and each precinct apportions delegates to the county convention. These numbers are reported to the state party, which counts the total number of delegates for each candidate and reports the results to the media. Most of the participants go home, leaving a few to finish the business of the caucus: each preference group elects its delegates, and then the groups reconvene to elect local party officers and discuss the platform.

I know, it's a lot harder than showing up at the polls and casting a vote. But what makes it hard is also what makes it great. I have no problem with Iowa going first in the country because they don't just vote, they debate, they listen, they struggle to make a decision, and they don't do it in anonymity, they do it in front of their friends and neighbors. That's right, no secret ballots, you have to stand up and say "I support this candidate and here is why." This is the essence of Democracy, this is the will of the people being decided together, at the local level.

And you know what else I like about the caucuses? Morons don't usually take the time to participate. There, I said it. I hate the fact that idiots can decide who my nominees for President are going to be and in Iowa, it takes a truly motivated idiot to make that happen.

In fact, after seeing what happened during the last Presidential election, I think the whole damn country should be forced to caucus.

When George W. Bush gets re-elected, I just know that there were people voting for him who never would have had the guts to look their neighbor in the eye and defend their decision.

So, the next time you hear someone complain about the caucus system in Iowa, take it with a grain of salt. In fact, tell'em to really look into the facts. It might be harder to participate, but the quality of the participation more than makes up for it.

And nothing makes a person do their homework like having to defend their position in public. That is why Iowa should go first in the country and that is why they should continue to caucus, because by the time these guys leave Iowa, the world has a pretty good idea who they are.

If you want more information on the Iowa caucuses, here are a few decent links.

IowaCaucus.com

Wikipedia

IowaFirstCaucus.org

For Christmas, a few little presents from the world of news

I want to wish each and everyone one of you a happy holidays, merry Christmas, super-duper Kwanzaa or whatever it is you're celebrating as the year comes to a close. As a little gift to you, here are a few news stories worth checking out.

You bet he is...

JACKSON, Miss. — He's a 19-year-old pipe layer; a deer-hunting, dirt-bike-riding former high school class president who still lives in his tiny Mississippi hometown. So why are the paparazzi hot on his trail?

Because Casey Aldridge is an expectant father — and the mother is 16-year-old Jamie Lynn Spears.

You know what else he might be? A criminal. Let's do the math, she is 16 and he's 19. Under Louisiana law, where Spears lives, it is a misdemeanor for someone age 17 to 19 to have consensual sex with someone age 15 to 17 if the difference between their ages is more than two years.

But that isn't what drew me to the story, it was the lead. Read it again. That reporter was certainly grinning when he wrote that one.

Oh well, I guess you can take the girl out of the trailer park, but you can't take the trailer park out of the girl. This poor family. They had hit the Disney jackpot, and now they are a laughing stock. I just hope Brit and her sister can find a way to normal, no one deserves this.

AP: Jamie Lynn Spears' Baby's Father Is in Hiding

Top Ten List Horn O' Plenty

I love a top ten list. Pretty much any top ten list. Top Ten Most Disgusting Things my Dogs have Eaten. (Regurgitated cat poop comes in at number four.) Top Ten Uses for WD-40. (Dissolves dried manure from work boots is an appropriate number two on the list.)

Any top ten list is probably going to grab my attention. David Letterman had people like me in mind when he turned the top ten list into comedy genius. I used to plan my entire evening around the Letterman Top Ten. I was obsessed. But after successfully completing a ten-step program, I'm better now.

So, if you love a top ten list, Time Magazine has the Top 50 Top Ten Lists of 2007. Movies, songs, news stories, inventions, games, scandals, quotes, TV ads, and much more, everything you could want from a list of lists. It is a cornucopia of list fun.

BTW... I can't believe Britney Spears' disastrous half naked train wreck at the MTV music awards only made number 6 on the Top Ten Most Awkward Moments list. I don't even like the girl and that was really hard to watch.

Time.com Top 50, Top Ten Lists

Exit: Stage Left

The wife and I love the awards shows. Ok, she has loved them for longer than I have. I am late to the awards party as it were, but when you get married, your spouse leads you to discover new things, and for me, it is the celebrity lovefest that is the red carpet and awards shows. But my most favorite part of the big awards shows is the "Bring Out Your Dead" section. All those great clips and "I didn't know he/she had died" moments. If you can't wait for the Golden Globes, here is a slideshow from MSNBC.com

Hey...I didn't know that Ingmar Bergman had passed.

Missed it by that much...

The ice storm that has killed more than 20 and has left hundreds of thousands without power, missed us. Not that we weren't prepared. All of the stores were out of sidewalk salt, the airport cancelled flights, Chi-town was prepared. Of course, that means we got missed.

I just hope that the three or so inches of snow we have on the ground lasts until Christmas. If it is going to snow the first week in December, the least it can do is stay around and make Christmas look the way it is supposed to look.

The Thought Police

One of the things I love about this country is the protection of speech. In other countries men and women are currently sitting in jails facing sentences as dire as death for merely speaking out, for having opinions, for saying things that spark debate. But in America, within reason, we can stand up and speak and are heard by our fellow citizens. The marketplace of ideas that stands a cornerstone of our democracy is well-stocked and allowed to flourish.

Or so I thought.

You see, some of the things a marketplace of ideas contains are disgusting. They offend the heart and spirit. But in doing so, they reaffirm our own beliefs. When the Ku Klux Klan has a rally, I am reminded of why I stand for tolerance and diversity. When I hear war hawks talk of bombing, I know why it is I support diplomacy and peace. And when I hear well off men and women talk disparagingly about the poor, I know why it is that I am a Democrat.

But perhaps the marketplace is not as well stocked or protected as I believed. In Wisconsin last week, a teacher was arrested for a posting on a blog. In that posting, the teacher and former teachers union president praised the Columbine shooters. He, according to the news report, "wrote that teacher salaries made him sick because they are lazy and work only five hours a day. He praised the teen gunmen who killed 12 students and a teacher before committing suicide in the April 1999 attack at Columbine High School."

He then continued to write, "They knew how to deal with the overpaid teacher union thugs. One shot at a time!"

Even if this was an attempt at satire or sarcasm, even if it was a parody of his perception of those who oppose increasing teacher pay, the words are vile. They are at the least ill-chosen and at the worst insensitive and offensive. But what they are not is criminal.

However disturbing or disgusting I may find these statements, you can count me among those who support his right to say them. Why? Because when the prevailing winds of opinion or politics change and my words are found offensive, I don't want to be sitting in some jail hoping that cooler heads prevail. And you should feel the same way.

Whether you are a right-wing nut job or a left-wing pinko commie, you have the right to speak. And you should not be jailed for your words, you should not be arrested for having an opinion. It is not the role of the state to regulate this type of speech, that right falls to a free society. As consumers in the marketplace of ideas, you have a right buy or not to buy. You even have the right to boycott, but the government should not and cannot arrest a man for writing such words, even if they are offensive to the heart.

The American armed forces have bombed and killed innocents on the orders of our government. I find it offensive. I don't believe the war was justified and the constant drum beat of war propoganda coming from the mouth pieces at the White House is painful for me to hear. But it is not criminal, it is essencial to the public debate about the future of this country.

So I beg you, read the words of this teacher and be offended, but recognize the law that should protect him from prosecution is the same law that protects you and me. It is the same law that allows me to publicly disagree with the President on the war. It is the same law that allows the morons in my town to blame every problem "on those damn illegal Mexicans." And it the same law that keeps us free and our democracy alive.