Thursday, October 09, 2008

How Obama Could Lose

I have had more and more people walk up to me and declare that Obama is going to win the election. But being a Cubs fan, a Minnesota Vikings fan and a Democrat, I know that nothing is for sure. There is no such thing as a sure winner, no matter what the polls or pundits say, it isn't over till America votes. Everyone who lived through the last two elections should know that all too well.

To help put this in perspective, let me give you a perfectly plausible way that Obama could lose this November. I don't think this is going to happen, but it is certainly possible.

Electoral Math

Take a look at the electoral college map as it stands today based on state polling. (Maps obtained from CNN) This shows Obama with nearly enough states to clinch the nomination if all of the currently strong states and leaning states come in for him. Even so, he is still six electors short. That means he has to get one of the toss up states as well. Any one of them will do. (Except Nevada - it only has five electoral votes)

McCain, as of right now, has to win all of his strong states, all the states leaning his way, and all the toss up states. That would give him 274 with 270 needed to win.


This isn't as far fetched as you might think. The only difference between this map and what happened in 2004 is New Mexico and Iowa are Obama states while both of those narrowly went to Bush last election.

Now, lets take a look at those toss up states. Since 1992, only five of the seven have gone to a Democratic candidate at least once and none of them have gone Democratic in the last eight years. Ohio, Missouri and Nevada in both 1992 and 1996. Florida and Colorado only in 1996 and in 1992 respectively.

Every single one of these toss-up states, in recent history, has voted Republican. So while McCain has to win all of the toss-up states, the history of those states is at least marginally on his side.

This is not a done deal. Obama still has to win a traditionally red state to win. And I'll say it again, if you lived through 2000 and 2004, you know just how hard that can be.

Whether it is Kathrine Harris and hanging chads, 8-hour waits to vote in traditionally Democratic precincts or questions about voter fraud and electronic voting machines, the Republicans will not go down without a dirty, sand in the eyes, foot to the groin fight.

Democrats cannot get complacent. We must continue to press forward. We have to do everything we can to make sure that each and every one of us votes and that those votes are counted. If we don't, we could find ourselves reliving history yet again.

8 comments:

Phil said...

One of the things I thought the close race would do for us was to get out the vote. As Obama has built a lead in the polls I have begun to worry about complacency among Democratic voters. I sure hope that everyone realizes this thing is not in the bag yet.

As Chris Rock said recently.... "Congratulations, you got the most votes. Too bad you still lost. See, we don't count votes much anymore."

The deck is still stacked against us and the only way to make sure we win this thing is to have VERY heavy turnout!

McCain Palin 2008 said...

Obama has one significant problem: there is no affirmative action in the electoral college.

America is racist enough to not elect him.

Thank God for that.

Mum-me said...

Oooo, that seemed like a bit of a nasty comment from 'mccain palin 2008'. Or is it just me?

Did I read correctly - 8 hour wait to vote? I thought the gov't wanted you guys to get out and vote! US needs more polling booths.

Here, voting is compulsory and we get annoyed with a 15 minute wait.

The T-Dude said...

Phil - Amen brother.

mccain palin 2008 - I was tempted to delete your comments because racists make me want to vomit. But unlike the Bush administration and the rest of the neo-cons, I respect the Constitution. That very document that gives bigots the right to voice their opinion. I hope you are enjoying that right, because the best chance you have for preserving it is an Obama presidency.

Oh yeah, I almost forgot. You're an asshole. But at least you're one in public so that we all can see just whjat your typical McCain supporter is all about.

Mum-Me - In Florida and Ohio last election, some voters in traditionally Democratic precints had to wait many hours to vote because the Republican run state government failed to provide adequate voting facilities. Gotta love democracy, American-style.

EXSENO said...

Remember the second time Bush ran. No one with half a brain wanted him for a second term.
But look what happened in Florida, he got the electoral votes there in spite of the fact that most of the people in Florida didn't want him.

So what happened there. Well voting machines broke (ya right) and it was said that many people that lived there received anonymous phone calls telling them to stay away from the polls.

Oh my what a fair race that was. But guess who won the second best idiot to palin. I think they might be relatives. lol

McCain Palin 2008 said...

Don't worry- there won't be an end on November 4th.
Obama will scream racism when he loses. People who say they will vote for him in the various polls will actually vote Republican in the poll booth in privacy. Sick and twisted? Maybe. But Americans (myself included- though I'm VERY Republican- cannot get beyond the "Government owes me something because I'm black". Blacks sold blacks into slavery. And yet they're still dumb enough to not understand that. Social entitlement programs need to stop and they will with a McCain Palin Administration.

Life Of An Emt said...

Please do I have to look back in time at the 2000-2004 elections I was so upset, And yet again the following election. I can only hope and pray Obama wins the election... after months of being indecisive on who to vote for because i rarely get the oppertunity to stay informed on the news or current events having to work out of town so much. I finally did get to see them both with there running mates hands down I am for Obama....
normally I call my self a democrate but honestly I am for the person who I feel would be best for our country be it republican or democrate......
One more thing before I leave your site..T-dude I must commend you on how you have handled mccain palins comments kudo's to you .. your a better person than I am.

TheHMC said...

Ugh..I'm checking this from my phone so I can't respond the way I'd like to(stupid, tiny keyboard), but that's probably a good thing, considering what I'd like to say to mccain palin 2008 right now.

I'll have to 'holla back on this one when our internet is back up.