How Obama Could Lose

I have had more and more people walk up to me and declare that Obama is going to win the election. But being a Cubs fan, a Minnesota Vikings fan and a Democrat, I know that nothing is for sure. There is no such thing as a sure winner, no matter what the polls or pundits say, it isn't over till America votes. Everyone who lived through the last two elections should know that all too well.

To help put this in perspective, let me give you a perfectly plausible way that Obama could lose this November. I don't think this is going to happen, but it is certainly possible.

Electoral Math

Take a look at the electoral college map as it stands today based on state polling. (Maps obtained from CNN) This shows Obama with nearly enough states to clinch the nomination if all of the currently strong states and leaning states come in for him. Even so, he is still six electors short. That means he has to get one of the toss up states as well. Any one of them will do. (Except Nevada - it only has five electoral votes)

McCain, as of right now, has to win all of his strong states, all the states leaning his way, and all the toss up states. That would give him 274 with 270 needed to win.


This isn't as far fetched as you might think. The only difference between this map and what happened in 2004 is New Mexico and Iowa are Obama states while both of those narrowly went to Bush last election.

Now, lets take a look at those toss up states. Since 1992, only five of the seven have gone to a Democratic candidate at least once and none of them have gone Democratic in the last eight years. Ohio, Missouri and Nevada in both 1992 and 1996. Florida and Colorado only in 1996 and in 1992 respectively.

Every single one of these toss-up states, in recent history, has voted Republican. So while McCain has to win all of the toss-up states, the history of those states is at least marginally on his side.

This is not a done deal. Obama still has to win a traditionally red state to win. And I'll say it again, if you lived through 2000 and 2004, you know just how hard that can be.

Whether it is Kathrine Harris and hanging chads, 8-hour waits to vote in traditionally Democratic precincts or questions about voter fraud and electronic voting machines, the Republicans will not go down without a dirty, sand in the eyes, foot to the groin fight.

Democrats cannot get complacent. We must continue to press forward. We have to do everything we can to make sure that each and every one of us votes and that those votes are counted. If we don't, we could find ourselves reliving history yet again.

Quick Hits: Now with gravity!

They're Falling on Hard Times

To quote Frank Zappa, "Beauty knows no pain." But apparently Frank didn't consider financial pain in his equation. According to the this article, women are putting off those breast enhancements and tummy tucks because of the crappy economy.

At least there is one good thing coming from this financial mess. If women can learn to accept who they are and quit worrying about those five extra pounds we'll all be happier.

As economy sags, so do breasts.

Drop-Dead Funny

When I was younger, my Dad (the local library director) used to bring home a film projector and a stack of Blackhawk Films. These were mostly one or two reel shorts of Laurel and Hardy or Buster Keaton. We'd take the picture off the living room wall, pop popcorn and just die laughing.

I was particularly fond of the Laurel and Hardy flicks. So much so, that I spent a couple of days in front of the mirror perfecting a Stan Laurel face. I'm still pretty good at it, but no one under the age of 60 remembers who Stan Laurel is so it's kinda useless now.

I think I'll see if I can't get a few of their flicks from BlockBuster and show them to the kids. They are black and white so they might not buy into them, but it's worth a shot.

Oliver Hardy Festival

Gettin' a Little Zero-G

Someone offered Virgin Galactic, the company putting together the first commercial passenger space flights, $1,000,000 dollars to let them film the first zero-gravity porno. In this case, Virgin lived up to it's name and turned down the deal.

Virgin Galactic Turns Down Sex-in-Space Proposal

If anyone is going to figure out how to actually "do it" in zero-gravity, it might take the trained professionals of the porn industry to really make it work.

According to NASA physician Jim Logan:

...spontaneous sex in space could be "a little underwhelming."

"It's a pretty messy environment, when you think about it," he said. "And for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. However ... I can well imagine how compelling, inspiring, and quite frankly stimulating choreographed sex in zero-G might be in the hands of a skilled and talented cinematographer with appropriate lighting and music."

When the crowd tittered, Logan added, "I'm not kidding: Sex in zero-G is going to have to be more or less choreographed. Otherwise it's just going to be a wild flail."

If and when the end is near and we are forced to flee to space, who knew that the key to our survival as a species could well be in the hands of pioneering pornographers. That should have been the pitch to Virgin:

"It's not porn, it's a training film."

Palin Porn

Honestly, there are a lot of things that go on in the world were I say, "Hey, whatever floats your boat." But this one, I just don't get.

Palin Porn Audition

Why would anyone be interested in watching this?

"She's an idiot."

I was going to post about Sarah Palin, but my wife beat me to the punch. In fact, she summed it up rather nicely. Check it out here.

But I will say this:

The Republican's are so worried about her performance tomorrow that they are intentionally trying to drive down expectations. There have been "leaks" talking about how Sarah Palin wasn't doing well in debate prep. There are only two reasons for there ever to be leaks like this.

1) A campaign staffer is trying to make sure that the world knows that this mess isn't his/her fault.

or

2) They want to drive down expectations so that the media will report that she did better than people thought she would.

Honestly, if she successfully converts oxygen into carbon dioxide, I think there will be people saying she did better than expected. Mere respiration without a mistake, that will show me more than I expect.

Don't buy it folks. Listen to her words, watch her attitude. Don't listen to what anyone, including me says. Make up your own mind based not on expectations, but on actual performance. If you do that, I'm sure you'll do the right thing in the voting booth.

I've been gone...but now I'm back.

I had fully intended to blog from Minneapolis, but the Internet hook-up in my hotel sucked. So when I get unpacked and the kids remember what I look like, I'll post more completely.

Comment Spam

For those of you who might be wondering why I deleted a comment in the previous post, it is because it was comment spam from a company selling a device that claimed to make a man's penis bigger. They didn't actually say that, but when you went to the web site, that's what it was.

They actually offered to send me one to "give to a friend to try." Then they wanted me to write a review of the product. First off, by a friend, I know they meant me, they just didn't want to imply that I might have a short cock. But supposing I took them at their word, that certainly would make for an interesting conversation.

"Hey Joe, I noticed in the locker room the other day that your thang ain't exactly swinging. You should try this new device that someone I don't know sent me. Then in a few weeks, let's get together and measure your manhood to see if it worked."

Seriously, you have got to be kidding me.

I suppose I had it coming. A few months ago I was taken aback by the number of penis stories in the news and did a Quick Hits posting on it. My blog probably ended up in their google search as a likely place to market their product.

If someone would only offer to send me a product I would use, like a cocktail shaker or a do-it-yourself Impeach the President kit. Those are things I would be happy to review.

New Link in the Template

I am not one to throw links around like loose change. I am not a "link whore." But I have neglected to add this link to my favorites for quite some time. Do yourself a favor and check out DMC & ME.

I waxed poetic about his blog a few posts back when I tagged him, but wanted to make sure that I added his blog to the links section to the left...and now I have.

Keep up the good work Martini, you crazy Halloween-loving Canuck.

With Special Thanks to Aunt Pat for Sharing...

Andrew Sullivan, a Republican through and through and a former editor at the New Republic has this to say about McCain's choice of Gov. Palin for a running mate.

I’ve voted a straight Republican ticket every year of my life since 1975, when I first came of voting age, but I was stunned and horrified by McCain’s choice of Palin. I simply cannot even consider voting for McCain after this choice, which speaks loudly of his own selfishness and fundamental frivolousness.

So I was shocked when I turned to the conservative blogs looking for others who shared my dismay and found a celebration going on. They really honestly believe that Palin’s “inexperience” and Obama’s “inexperience” are equivalent. I have had no luck at all in the past 24 hours trying to explain that Obama is quite obviously an impressive man (with whom I disagree on almost every major issue) with extraordinary qualities of organization, discipline and leadership. I see nothing in Palin’s record to suggest that she has any such qualities.

He is a man who has spent his adult life thinking serious thoughts about serious issues and having serious conversations about them with other serious, well-informed people; while Palin quite as clearly has done none of those things. He was the president of the Harvard Law Review; she was the point guard on her high school basketball team.

Not long ago, I waxed poetic about William F Buckley and how I disagreed with him on nearly everything but I was going to miss him because of his eloquence. While I'm no Andrew Sullivan, it seems he has a similar feeling about a potential Obama presidency but from on the other side of the political spectrum.

Palin is nothing more than a political ploy. They are hiding her from the press because they know that women will hate her once they get to know her. She has political scandals brewing in her home state, from abuse of power investigations to getting paid per diem for staying home. I urge you to read the rest of Mr. Sullivan's piece. It is short, but it makes the point exactly.

The Shock Of Palin

I've been M-I-A

I'm sorry...we're getting into the busy time here at work so I haven't had the same time or inclination to write. Just let me say these few quick things.

1) The more women voters get to know Sarah Palin, the less they are going to like her. That is why she has done so little press.

2)People weren't meant to live in large numbers along the gulf coast. The natural wetlands etc. cannot sustain a large population. Maybe it's time to leave it behind, give it back to nature and accept that humans really are a virus on the body Earth.

3)Why are Swedish Fish "swedish"? The ones I had yesterday were made in New Jersey.

4)It is 50 degrees outside and my beagles are shivering like it's ten below. What wimps.

5)The debates are going to be key to this election. And for the first time, the V.P. debates are going to matter because some people are voting for McCain/Palin because they EXPECT him to pass on before the end of his term.

Okay...got to go wake up the wife, get her coffee, wake up Daughter Dos, get her breakfast, make her lunch, make my lunch, get her dressed....etc. etc., all you parents out there know the drill.

Color vs Black and White...well, white anyway

Is it just me or is the Republican Convention really, really Caucasian. I think I saw four or five people of color all night long. You listen to the speeches and they try to sound like us, but in the end, the Republican Party looks nothing like the rest of America.